WINNERS
TV STATIONS This year’s election was an advertising bonanza for local TV stations. They raked in millions of dollars in ads from PACs and candidates, fueled by tight races for governor in Massachusetts and US Senate in New Hampshire. The four Massachusetts ballot questions, which touched nerves with casinos, beverage companies, and gas tax proponents, spurred even more advertising spending. WCVB Channel 5 raked in $8.3 million, and that was just counting ads run by Coakley and Baker, Scott Brown and Jeanne Shaheen, and five of the 27 non-candidate campaigns. The actual total could be as much as twice that much. The payoff for the other local TV stations was equally grand.
INDEPENDENTS The three independents in the governor’s race garnered just under 5 percent of the vote as a group, but Evan Falchuk emerged as a winner because he garnered 3.3 percent, enough to gain official recognition for his Independent United Party. Even Bible-thumping Scott Lively fared well on a cost-per-vote basis. Lively garnered 19,161 votes at a cost of $1.81 per vote. Venture capitalist Jeff McCormick won only 16,106 votes at a cost of $95.49 per vote.
ELIZABETH WARREN Warren wasn’t running for office this year, but the Massachusetts US senator campaigned aggressively for Democrats in Massachusetts and around the country. By my reckoning, she campaigned for or donated PAC money to 16 Senate candidates, 9 of whom won. Her big winners were Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, Al Franken in Minnesota, Tom Udall in New Mexico, Christopher Coons in Delaware, and Jeff Merkley in Oregon. She also backed Bruce Braley in Iowa, Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky, Michelle Nunn in Georgia, Mark Pryor in Arkansas, Rick Weiland in South Dakota, and Kay Hagan in North Carolina, all of whom lost. She also supported Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, who is headed for a tough runoff. The Washington Times reports Warren had coattails nationally. The heavy PAC spending in the Massachusetts governor’s race, which helped topple Coakley, looks to be a big issue for her going forward.
BILL WELD The former governor helped Baker become governor and he and his firm, ML Strategies, made lots of money helping Wynn Resorts land a casino license and derail a ballot campaign that would have taken it away. Weld’s only setback was his endorsement of Sen. Richard Moore, a Democrat from Uxbridge, who was defeated by Republican Rep. Ryan Fattman.
DAN RIVERA Lawrence’s first-term mayor remains on a roll. After edging William Lantigua in 2013 in a recount that gave him an 81-vote victory margin, he delivered his city for attorney general candidate Warren Tolman in the Democratic primary (one of only four cities to go Tolman’s way against Maura Healey) and for Rep. Marcos Devers in his rematch on Tuesday against Lantigua. Rivera also helped deliver Lawrence for Coakley 69-27.
LOSERS
BOSTON GLOBE/SOCIALSPHERE The Boston Globe went out on a limb with its outlier polls predicting a 7-to-9 point victory for Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker, but the race ended up being decided by just under 2 points. The result was another awkward polling moment for the Globe, whose former pollster in 2010 had Coakley up by 17 not long before voters went to the polls and elected Scott Brown to the US Senate.
The Globe wasn’t shy in touting a late Baker surge. On October 24, the newspaper splashed a story across the top of its front page showing Baker leading Coakley by 9 points, a sharp departure from the previous week when the newspaper had the two candidates dead-even. On Friday, the Globe had Baker’s lead at 7 points, closer to the rest of the polling pack (polls had Baker’s lead at 6, 5 and 4) but still a wider margin than any other poll.
John Della Volpe, whose Cambridge company SocialSphere Inc. handles polling for the Globe, was quoted as saying on Friday that “this looks very solid for Baker” unless there is a dramatic change of events, which didn’t happen once former mayor Thomas Menino’s death effectively put the campaign on hold. Della Volpe could not be reached for comment.
Most other pollsters put Baker ahead, but by lesser amounts than SocialSphere. News outlets were cautious, predicting a close contest. The MassINC Polling Group, WBUR’s pollster and a subsidiary of MassINC, which publishes CommonWealth, put Baker up by 1 point. Suffolk University’s David Paleologos, who polls for the Boston Herald, put Baker ahead by 3 points, which was close to the final mark, but his election eve bellwether prediction turned out to be wrong. He said Gloucester and Waltham would pick the winner, but both cities went for Coakley – Waltham by 50.7-44.9 and Gloucester by 48.4-46.9.
ENVIRONMENTALISTS Environmental advocates have been pushing for an expanded bottle bill for forever, but now that quest may come to an end with the lopsided 73-27 vote on Question 2. The time could be ripe for businesses and environmentalists to turn their attention to broader recycling efforts that could deal with not only bottles but all the other junk we bury, burn, or haul out of state every day.
DOUG RUBIN Rubin’s Northwind Strategies hit pay dirt with its work for Deval Patrick, Elizabeth Warren, and Joseph Kennedy, but Coakley’s loss put an exclamation point on a dry spell that started with Felix Arroyo in the Boston mayoral campaign and Warren Tolman’s crushing defeat by Maura Healey in the Democratic primary for attorney general.
HARD TO TELL
CASINOS The obvious winners were Wynn Resorts, MGM Resorts, Penn National and the cities of Springfield, Everett, and Plainville. A possible loser is Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, who has been reluctant to support Wynn’s Everett casino proposal but now faces a 60-40 voter mandate in support of gambling palaces.
NEWSPAPERS The Herald News in Fall River (Coakley), the Fitchburg Sentinel & Enterprise (Baker), and the Berkshire Eagle in Pittsfield (Coakley) all saw their endorsed candidate for governor win their city, but the other major Gateway City dailies weren’t so successful. The Globe and the Boston Herald both endorsed Baker but he lost the city by a 66-30 margin.